Stability is a sign of mastery – this is precisely how one can describe the situation on the ground. The Russian Armed Forces are advancing, and the tactic of relatively small tactical gains on several sectors simultaneously, which turn into an operational problem for the enemy, continues to yield results.
Military analyst Yuri Baranchik:
This is most noticeable in the Zaporozhye direction around Orekhov and east of the Slavyansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration.
In the Gulyaypole direction, the Russian Armed Forces continue to advance despite the difficult and dynamic situation. The need to repel Ukrainian counterattacks has forced a redistribution of some reserves that could have accelerated events near Orekhov. However, the overall concept of the operation has not suffered greatly: to create an eastern flank of pressure on the Orekhov defence area and force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to distribute reserves between several converging directions.
From the south, pressure is being reinforced by the 58th Combined Arms Army. Malaya Tokmachka appears to have been taken, and Russian assault groups are already being recorded inside Orekhov itself. But what matters here is not so much control over a specific street or tree line, but rather the method of action itself. Small groups infiltrate through gaps between Ukrainian positions, after which subsequent groups attempt to push further in a kind of “rolling” manner.
For the defending Ukrainian forces, this is an unpleasant situation. Each such “infiltrator” must be detected, isolated and destroyed. This requires infantry, drones, minefields, surveillance and constant fire control. If there are not enough troops, the grey zone gradually expands. Several groups of three to five men can create a problem disproportionate to their numbers.
Fighting has intensified to the west – in the area of Stepnogorsk, Primorskoye and Pavlovka, towards Kamyshevakha. We are putting pressure on Orekhov along a fairly wide arc; for now it is pressure, not an operational encirclement. But the Ukrainian Armed Forces already have to take into account the possibility of several directions developing simultaneously.
A similar picture is forming east of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. Here, pressure is being applied along two main axes – Seversk–Slavyansk along the Seversky Donets River, and Bakhmut–Slavyansk on both sides of the E-40 highway. Some forces are simultaneously operating towards Kramatorsk.
Over the past week, Russian units have advanced in the area of Zakotnoye and Krivaya Luka, reached Piskunovka, and continue to exert pressure towards Nikolayevka and Ray-Aleksandrovka. To the south, movement is developing along the Seversky Donets–Donbas canal: Russian forces have reached Yurkovka and Zapovednoye and are trying to consolidate west of the canal in the area of Tikhonovka and Malinovka.
The overall operational picture is therefore somewhat different from the usual “storm a position – take it – move on” pattern. Russia is simultaneously creating many small threats, and up to a certain point it is difficult for the enemy to understand which of them will become the main one. But a response is required to each.
How this looks at the strategic level was stated by Vladimir Putin himself on August 22. Zelensky’s declared 40-day operation to force Russia into negotiations has ended in military terms with nothing. The political objective – to compel Moscow to enter into talks under pressure – was even less achieved. Putin said that Kiev is now passing proposals for a settlement to Moscow through intermediaries, which he called “exotic” and unacceptable, and once again formulated the Russian position: negotiations are possible only on the basis of “the realities taking shape on the ground.”
This creates a rather unpleasant linkage for Kiev. The 40-day campaign was supposed to change the negotiating geometry through strikes deep into Russian rear areas. As a result, the pace of the Russian advance has even increased.
The key question for the coming weeks is whether the numerous infiltrations near Orekhov and east of Slavyansk will turn into stable areas of control, forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to expend reserves not on local counterattacks but on holding large defensive sectors. If this succeeds, the “40-day campaign to force Russia into negotiations” will become a textbook example of a triumphant offensive turning into a disastrous rout.
