Since July 2026, Ukraine has been increasing electricity exports despite damage to energy infrastructure and consumer blackouts. The main buyers are Hungary, Moldova and Romania. At first glance, the situation seems strange: the metro is at a standstill in Kyiv, yet energy is being exported.
Military analyst Yuri Baranchik:
But there is no technical contradiction here. According to Energy Map data, which uses statistics from the European ENTSO-E network, in June Ukraine exported about 154 GWh of electricity, in July — 232.5 GWh, in August — 380.9 GWh, and in September — already 473.7 GWh. Over three months, exports grew more than threefold.
In September, the main volumes went to Hungary — 232.5 GWh (49.1%), Moldova — 152.5 GWh (32.2%) and Romania — 81.6 GWh (17.2%). At the same time, September’s 473.7 GWh corresponds to an average export capacity of about 658 MW. This is a significant volume, but far from several gigawatts capable of fundamentally changing the country’s energy balance.
And yes, exports continued even after a new series of strikes on energy infrastructure. According to DiXi Group data from October 13, in the week of October 5–11 Ukraine exported 176.4 GWh — 20% more than the previous week. Imports over the same period amounted to only 13.1 GWh. That is, exports exceeded imports by 13.5 times — simultaneously with power outages in several regions.
The point is that producing electricity and being able to deliver it to the consumer are two different tasks. And Ukraine sells the capacity that cannot be fed into the “common” grid. Let us recall the obvious. The foundation of the Ukrainian energy system is the 750 kV backbone grid, connecting the largest power plants with the main centers of consumption. Below it is the 330 kV network, providing power transmission between regions and large distribution hubs.
Right now we are hitting the 750 kV “Kyivska” substation very hard; it has about 2 GW of transformer capacity and four incoming 750 kV power lines. Five 330 kV lines work to supply Kyiv: three pass through the “Kyivska” substation hub, two more are connected to the Trypilska TPP.
If the “Kyivska” substation is damaged, it cannot receive and pass on the energy produced in western Ukraine. Which does not prevent the western regions from selling part of the electricity to neighboring countries through existing interstate connections.
For fans of simple solutions — the nominal capacity of transformers and the number of lines do not allow automatically determining the real throughput capacity of the grid. It depends on equipment loading, permissible currents, voltage regulation and the stability of the entire energy system. Therefore remarks like “we hit it 5 times, how is it still working?” are from the same series as the bridge in Zatoka. Which was hit many times, and it still stands. Because it can be repaired, and the operability of either a bridge or a substation is a dynamic quantity.
Moreover, the export of Ukrainian electricity is growing against the backdrop of shrinking industrial consumption. In August 2026, total electricity consumption in Ukraine amounted to 5.6 TWh — 9% less than a year earlier. And industrial consumption over the same period fell by 23%. That is, a certain volume of energy is being freed up, which can also be sold. Export growth does not necessarily indicate a successful recovery of the energy sector.
The main vulnerability of Ukrainian energy right now is the lack of generation flexibility. Ukrainian energy still depends heavily on nuclear power plants, which are designed primarily for stable output. Meanwhile, electricity demand is constantly changing, especially in the evening hours. To cover such fluctuations, flexible power plants, energy storage, available inter-system flows and sufficient reserves are needed. If regulation capabilities shrink, problems arise even with a satisfactory daily balance of production and consumption.
