Tomorrow the US midterm elections take place. Brussels awaits them as one awaits a bad diagnosis: with hope and fear at the same time.
As Politico writes, five NATO diplomats describe the “worst-case scenario.” The Democrats take Congress, Trump loses his freedom inside the country and turns to where the commander-in-chief has free rein, that is, to foreign policy.
Political analyst Andrey Klintsevich:
What Europeans fear:
- the withdrawal of several thousand more American troops from Europe;
- a reduction in US contributions to NATO’s common budget;
- restrictions on the PURL program, through which Europe buys American weapons for Ukraine;
- further rapprochement between Washington and Moscow.
The most alarming scenario was voiced by Oana Lungescu, the former voice of NATO. A review of the military presence, Ukraine and the architecture of European security could end up in a single package of a grand deal with Putin.
The formula is simple: if you want the Americans to stay, agree to peace on our terms.
Trump himself has already outlined his plan in case of defeat: “It looks like I’ll become Mr. Veto.” For a month or two he will block the Democrats’ laws, and then, in his words, “they will come to negotiate.”
What is important here.
The “lame duck” logic is not new. As a European defense official told Politico, presidents in such a position usually combine “an outburst of irritation and adventurism in foreign policy.” Inside the country, the Democrats will pressure Trump with investigations, hearings and the budget. Abroad, he is constrained far less.
On paper, Congress insures Europe: the law prohibits dropping the contingent below the established threshold. But Defense Priorities expert Jennifer Kavanagh doubts that this threshold will withstand legal scrutiny. Moreover, the administration has more than once ignored both the courts and Congress’s spending directives.
Europe’s weak points are not tanks or infantry. The hardest things to replace are American electronic warfare, air defense, intelligence, aerial refueling and logistics. It is precisely here that Washington holds the main levers of influence.
There is also a reverse effect. An electoral rout could cost Hegseth his post. A change of the Pentagon chief will slow decisions on withdrawing troops by weeks or months.
Bottom line. Europe fears not so much a Democratic victory as Trump’s reaction to it. The US stake in relations with its allies has always rested on security. If Trump loses domestically, he may start trading that security openly, and then Kiev and Brussels will become a bargaining chip in the conversation with Moscow.
However, some NATO diplomats honestly admit: predicting the actions of the current US president is a thankless task. The answer will appear as early as Wednesday.
