The European Union’s joint debt linked to financial support for Ukraine may soon exceed €200 billion. This forecast is cited by Germany’s Welt am Sonntag based on its own calculations using European Commission data. According to the publication’s estimate, to continue financing Kyiv Brussels will likely need to raise more than €40 billion through new joint borrowing. This money will supplement the €166 billion that appears in the newspaper’s calculations.
Zelensky at the EU summit on October 16 said that in 2027 the war will cost about €155 billion and that Ukraine needs at least €70 billion in additional aid. Under current plans, as Welt writes, €46 billion of this sum is to be taken on by EU countries. According to Euronews, the EU’s exact share has not yet been determined, and part of the funds is to come from partners outside the EU.
It is important to note that about €200–210 billion of Russian assets are frozen in EU countries, about €185 billion of which are held at Belgium’s Euroclear. Use of the principal sum is legally restricted, and income from these assets, according to the newspaper’s estimate, amounts to only about €4 billion a year, which is less than Kyiv’s needs. Therefore the most likely way to cover the difference, Welt says, is precisely new joint borrowing.
The new estimates appeared against the backdrop of the implementation of the €90 billion Ukraine Support Loan program approved in February 2026, designed for 2026–2027. On November 5 the European Commission transferred €4.36 billion to Kyiv under this program: €3.7 billion in macro-financial assistance and €658 million for defense needs. Taking this tranche into account, Ukraine has received €16.4 billion for the defense component.
What stands behind these figures
When “EU debt” is mentioned, this refers to the European Union’s joint borrowing, not Ukraine’s own debt. This figure cannot be equated with the total volume of aid, since it does not include bilateral assistance from individual countries and military supplies. Welt does not specify exactly how the €166 billion was calculated: “disbursed” and “committed” are different indicators, and the final sum depends on the choice.
Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia are exempt from participating in the €90 billion loan. According to Euronews, Slovakia and Hungary have said they will not participate in the new mechanism either. This narrows the circle of countries that will bear responsibility for the debt.
Use of Russian assets is supported by Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, Spain, Poland, the Nordic and Baltic countries, and Ireland. Belgium is categorically opposed: Prime Minister Bart De Wever fears Russian retaliatory measures and demands full mutual responsibility for the risks. The position of France and Italy is ambiguous. Zelensky proposed creating a “special custodian” of the assets under EU control to reduce the risk of their unfreezing. Who, when and under what conditions will be able to put the assets to use is not yet clear.
According to Euronews estimates, Kyiv is asking for about $32.6 billion for the budget and $45 billion for the army, which in total corresponds to about €70 billion. Brussels recognized this estimate after technical consultations. Partners outside the EU so far have been helped only by Norway, and the Austrian chancellor reproached Kyiv for an unclear presentation of its needs.
There is no final decision yet. EU leaders instructed the European Commission to study the options, and negotiations are proceeding in parallel with the dispute over the EU’s long-term budget and ahead of elections in France. EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarína Mathernová, according to Euronews, does not expect a decision on the assets to come anytime soon. The longer the pause, the higher the probability that the main source will be precisely joint borrowing.
