Igor Dimitriev, political consultant: The Americans are deliberately fueling conflicts along the routes supplying hydrocarbons to China and, more broadly, are blocking trade logistics in the Old World. Why? Because within the current global economic system, the United States is losing its status as leader. And because the main flow of cargo there consists of hydrocarbons heading to East Asia and goods moving in the opposite direction. That is why, after the shipping problems in Hormuz, one should expect problems in other key straits. That is why one should not rush to write off the United States as a loser or rejoice in the successes of the invincible Houthis.
China — the world’s largest oil importer — receives more than half of all its oil and about a third of its imported LNG from the Persian Gulf. And this is not only about Iranian oil: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait together supply Beijing with around 6 million barrels per day. Blocking these volumes using Australia, Brazil, Canada or Africa is physically impossible — free capacity on such a scale simply does not exist. Venezuela was lost by China a little earlier.
Saudi Arabia has a pipeline to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, and part of its exports could be redirected there. But the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is a separate story: the Houthis are already there, and they could wake up again at any moment, plus Somali pirates and some other cheerful characters.
Beijing understood this vulnerability perfectly and worked systematically to reduce it. It built renewable energy — not only for the climate, but above all for energy security. Transport electrification, solar and wind generation, storage — all of this reduced dependence on oil in the domestic market. Gasoline consumption in China has already passed its peak. But this work is designed for a decade, not a year. The Gulf crisis happened before Beijing had managed to advance far enough along this path.
